FaB-Results

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at Battle Hardened: Kansas City 2025

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

8 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jonathan Fouk
dropped • 5-2-0
86%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
2.9
Surp
2.4
Diff
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Hakan Gunes (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 48:52
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Isaac Chall (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37
Puffin, Hightail
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jesse Hinman (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 64:36
Arakni, Marionette
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Robert Sexton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Wyatt Goehring (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Sage Husanu (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 48:52
Fang, Dracai of Blades
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Richard Moretti (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 68:32
Justin Fryar
dropped • 5-2-0
57%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
2.8
Surp
2.3
Diff
Ira, Scarlet Revenger
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Chandler Bushnell (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 64:36
Dash I/O
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Sean Baker (Dash I/O) - Expected: 34:66
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Adam Cook (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37
Dash I/O
!
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tader Kammeyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs gabriel ebady (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs TUCKER CAMPBELL (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37
Dash I/O
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Austin Henry (Dash I/O) - Expected: 34:66
Jesse Hudak
dropped • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.7
Surp
1.5
Diff
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Michael Berg (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 48:52
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Devin Stevenson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 45:55
Arakni, Marionette
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Matthew Lucero (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 42:58
Valda, Seismic Impact
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Joel Grizzelle (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 50:50
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Stew Fraser (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
Justin Evans
dropped • 4-2-0
67%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
2.6
Surp
2.1
Diff
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Lucero (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 42:58
Riptide, Lurker of the Deep
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Bryant Kiley (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50
Kassai of the Golden Sand
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 72:28
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Timothy Bowar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Sage Husanu (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 48:52
Dash I/O
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Austin Henry (Dash I/O) - Expected: 34:66
Abigail Welday
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.8
Diff
Dorinthea Ironsong
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Abegail Tittle (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
!
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs gabriel ebady (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Rex Carroll (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50
Timothy Bowar
dropped • 2-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.3
Diff
Ira, Scarlet Revenger
!
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Connor Leverton (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Anthony Pham (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 48:52
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Randall Robinson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Justin Evans (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Randall Robinson
dropped • 1-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.7
Diff
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
!
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Edward Schoenberg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Riptide, Lurker of the Deep
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jeremy Beihn (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Timothy Bowar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Michael Cawvey
dropped • 0-2-0
50%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
0.9
Surp
0.0
Diff
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Michael Clair (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 48:52
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Devin Stevenson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 45:55

Legend

Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
Minor Surprise (10-19%)
!!
Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.