Battle Hardened: Kansas City 2025 - Riptide, Lurker of the Deep (CC)

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ryan Dunbar

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kyle Wright (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Davis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tader Kammeyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Yasunari Sakuma (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Logan King (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Shelly (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Max McLean (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.33
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.58
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Jeremy Beihn

dropped • 1-4-0

20%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yasunari Sakuma (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Randall Robinson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 38:62

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 18:82

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tamren Cardwell (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Chuck Ford (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.15
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Matt Garner

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mason Herschberg (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Clair (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jamie Foster (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Bryant Kiley

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jesse Hinman (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Evans (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.