Prism, Awakener of Sol at Battle Hardened: Kansas City 2025

Prism, Awakener of Sol

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jamie Foster

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Isaac Chall (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Wyatt Goehring (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matt Garner (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 64:36

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs jordan johnson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Shelly (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Berg (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.13
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.27
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.83
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.68
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Gabriel Kammeyer

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sean Baker (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ethan Gill (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs William Weinberg (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Noah Ford (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Randall Sims (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Leia Asp (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Thompson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.20
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.54
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.25
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Hannah Watts

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Micheal Porter (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Dandikar (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Carter Hulse (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Swazey Sexton (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Tamren Cardwell

dropped • 0-4-0

25%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Randall Sims (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Luke Harris (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Wynn (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 31:69

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jeremy Beihn (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.