Prism, Awakener of Sol at Battle Hardened: Kansas City 2025

Prism, Awakener of Sol

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jamie Foster

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Isaac Chall (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 66:34

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Wyatt Goehring (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matt Garner (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 63:37

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs jordan johnson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Shelly (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Berg (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.09
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.29
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.82
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.65
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Gabriel Kammeyer

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sean Baker (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ethan Gill (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs William Weinberg (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Noah Ford (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 66:34

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Randall Sims (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Leia Asp (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Thompson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.23
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.34
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.23
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Hannah Watts

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Micheal Porter (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Dandikar (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Carter Hulse (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Swazey Sexton (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Tamren Cardwell

dropped • 0-4-0

25%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Randall Sims (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Luke Harris (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Wynn (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 22:78

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jeremy Beihn (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.