Battle Hardened: Kansas City 2025 - Puffin, Hightail (CC)

Puffin, Hightail

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Swazey Sexton

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Bowar (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Peter Wemhoff (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 25:75

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matt Noelker (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Hannah Watts (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.50
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Joe Sturwold

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Wyatt Goehring (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Max McLean (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mike Murray (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jesse Hinman

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bryant Kiley (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs William Pearlman (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Fouk (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Phillip Scott

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs William Bodo (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs William Weinberg (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 25:75

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Zachary Rhodes (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.