Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty at Battle Hardened: Kansas

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Damien Riggins

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Phillip Spader (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chuck Ford (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 80:20

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Youngquist (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 16:84

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 48:52

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Collin Cromwell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Win	✗	0.77	0.42
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.13
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Mike Murray

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.6

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Noah Ford (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 23:77

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joe Santianna (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 23:77

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joe Sturwold (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joel Grizzelle (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Muhidin Grosonja (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Christopher Iaali

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joel Grizzelle (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs John Record (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 83:17

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Micheal Porter (Dash I/O) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs John Cooper (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.14
R3	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.31
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Zack Phillips

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Logan King (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Micheal Porter (Dash I/O) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Bader (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 48:52

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Bowar (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 12:88

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R2	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.21
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	15%	Loss	✗	0.12	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.