Battle Hardened: Kansas City 2025 - Florian, Rotwood Harbinger (CC)

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Maddux Warren

dropped • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.6

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Charlie Heavilin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 69:31

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs John Milner (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 62:38

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Young (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Chandler Bushnell (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 75:25

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tanner Lee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Randall Sims (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 75:25

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs William Weinberg (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.08
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.20
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.24
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.36
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.68

Chuck Ford

dropped • 4-2-1

86%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Peter Wemhoff (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 35:65

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thor Hoffman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Muhidin Grosonja (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jeremy Beihn (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 76:24

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Stew Fraser (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Connor Leverton (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 75:25

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.10
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Draw	✓	0.67	-
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.28
R6	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.42

Sean Elliott

dropped • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Youngquist (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 14:86

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Chandler Bushnell (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Abegail Tittle (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 70:30

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Abdul Mousa (Dash I/O) - Expected: 69:31

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Hakan Gunes (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Andrew Rothermel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.26
R4	CC	Dash I/O	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.36
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.57
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.57

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.