Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at Battle Hardened: Kansas City

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Maddux Warren

dropped • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Charlie Heavilin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 76:24

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs John Milner (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 60:40

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Young (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 20:80

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Chandler Bushnell (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tanner Lee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Randall Sims (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 65:35

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs William Weinberg (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.06
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.21
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.35
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.53
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.73

Chuck Ford

dropped • 4-2-1

86%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Peter Wemhoff (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 60:40

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 20:80

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thor Hoffman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

85:15

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Muhidin Grosonja (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 83:17

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jeremy Beihn (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Stew Fraser (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Connor Leverton (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.10
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	85%	Draw	✓	0.83	-
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.61

Sean Elliott

dropped • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Youngquist (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Chandler Bushnell (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Abegail Tittle (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 87:13

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Abdul Mousa (Dash I/O) - Expected: 76:24

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Hakan Gunes (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 60:40

85:15

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Andrew Rothermel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 83:17

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.10
R4	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.26
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.61
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.26

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.