Kano, Dracai of Aether at Battle Hardened: Kansas City 2025

Kano, Dracai of Aether

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

James Miller

1st • 9-1-0

40%

Meta

+4.0

Perf

4.9

Surp

5.3

Diff

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Zak Miller (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Richard Truong (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Yasunari Sakuma (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs William Weinberg (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Anthony Perry (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Myles Rightmire (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ryan Wallace (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Matthew Bowar (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jude Cornett (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

40% (4/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

5.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.11
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.10
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.31
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.56
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.43
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.86
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.98
R9	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.90
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.09

Ryan Youngquist

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sean Elliott (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bryce Henschel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Damien Riggins (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 84:16

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Austin Henry (Dash I/O) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kent Summerour (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.15
R4	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

William Bodo

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Phillip Scott (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dylan Williamson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs jordan johnson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

Gage Gilliam

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Shelly (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Thompson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.