Cindra, Dracai of Retribution at Battle Hardened: Kansas City 2025
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 6-2-0
75%
Meta
+1.8
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.3
Diff
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Richard Truong (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 37:63
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joe Sturwold (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jamie Foster (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tyler McMurray (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Bader (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jonathan Fouk (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs William Pearlman (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Edward Schoenberg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.9
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs John-David Cottrell (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Zachary Rhodes (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 76:24
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Muhidin Grosonja (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs James Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Max McLean (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Bader (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
40%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
2.1
Surp
2.3
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Charlie Heavilin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Swazey Sexton (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 61:39
Round 4: Win vs Hakan Gunes (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Myles Rightmire (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.3
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Collin Cromwell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Dunbar (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 30:70
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Bowar (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
Round 4: Win vs Charlie Heavilin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Luke Harris (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.9
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jeremy Stockfleth (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38
Round 2: Win vs Hakan Gunes (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Wyatt Goehring (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Michael Clair (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.