Dash I/O at Battle Hardened: Kansas City 2025
Dash I/O
9 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 6-2-0
75%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
3.2
Surp
2.2
Diff
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Christopher Wynn (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 82:18
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Robert Sexton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Matthew Lucero (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 56:44
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ryan Youngquist (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 45:55
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Yasunari Sakuma (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 34:66
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Justin Evans (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 66:34
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Justin Fryar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 66:34
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.8
Diff
15:85
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Bryce Henschel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 17:83
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tamren Cardwell (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 58:42
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Steve Halloran (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 82:18
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Shelly (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 34:66
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jacob Davis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Collin Cromwell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Thor Hoffman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 15% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
83%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.7
Surp
2.6
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Adam Cook (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Stew Fraser (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Dunbar (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
Round 4: Loss vs Justin Fryar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
Round 5: Win vs Bryce Henschel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Noah Rolf (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 70% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 15% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.5
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Gabriel Kammeyer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 58:42
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Justin Fryar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 66:34
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs William Pearlman (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.7
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs gabriel ebady (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40
Round 2: Win vs Abegail Tittle (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
15:85
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Bryce Henschel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 17:83
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Sean Elliott (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 15% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.3
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Maddux Warren (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Matt Noelker (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Barding (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Davis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.2
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Hannah Watts (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 58:42
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 25:75
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 25:75
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Michael Berg (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.3
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Zak Miller (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
0%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 34:66
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Logan King (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 34:66
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Michael Berg (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
0% (0/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.