Battle Hardened: Kansas City 2025 - Dorinthea Ironsong (CC)

Dorinthea Ironsong

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Richard Truong

3rd • 7-2-0

33%

Meta

+2.8

Perf

4.8

Surp

3.6

Diff

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Wyatt Goehring (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs James Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Anthony Pham (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Richard Moretti (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Rothermel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs gabriel ebady (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 79:21

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jacob Bader (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Zak Miller (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Yasunari Sakuma (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.16
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.33
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.45
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.15
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.80
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.97
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.73
R9	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Abegail Tittle

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Abdul Mousa (Dash I/O) - Expected: 58:42

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sean Elliott (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 30:70

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Leia Asp (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Peter Wemhoff (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.02
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

John Record

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Bader (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 14:86

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.