Dorinthea Ironsong at Battle Hardened: Kansas City 2025

Dorinthea Ironsong

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Richard Truong

3rd • 7-2-0

33%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

4.4

Surp

3.2

Diff

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Wyatt Goehring (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs James Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Anthony Pham (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Richard Moretti (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Rothermel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs gabriel ebady (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 81:19

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jacob Bader (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Zak Miller (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Yasunari Sakuma (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.18
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.27
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.36
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.13
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.89
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.74
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.59
R9	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Abegail Tittle

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Abdul Mousa (Dash I/O) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sean Elliott (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 13:87

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Leia Asp (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Peter Wemhoff (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	25%	Win	✗	0.77	1.71
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

John Record

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Bader (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 33:67

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 17:83

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.