Cindra, Dracai of Retribution at National Championship 2025 - Canada
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
16 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
1st • 7-2-0
56%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
4.2
Surp
5.4
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Isaiah Malana (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Nauris Rozenfelds (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Eli Teed (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 44:56
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Eric Lerer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Jakob Allan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42
70:30
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Tariq Patel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Lucas Ng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
5.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Win |
| R10 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R11 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Win |
| R12 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Loss |
| R13 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Win |
| R14 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R15 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Win |
3rd • 6-2-0
62%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
3.4
Surp
3.3
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Tsubasa Ueda (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Courtney MacIsaac (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Lloyd McBride (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59
70:30
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Isaak Krut (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29
70:30
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62
60:40
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Jakob Allan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Win |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Win |
| R12 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R13 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Win |
| R14 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
52nd • 4-2-0
83%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
2.8
Surp
3.9
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sacha Fonseca (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ryan Leveiller (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alex Knott (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs augustine shim (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Kevin Constantineau (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Ian Smith (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Win |
| R10 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
15th • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.4
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Maxim Villeneuve (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Léo Vézinet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Michel Remillard (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Eric Lerer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Matt Muus (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42
70:30
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Nghia Tran (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Loss |
| R11 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Loss |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Win |
34th • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.4
Surp
2.6
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jay Maillet (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 33:67
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tsubasa Ueda (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Marcin Duda (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44
Round 10: Loss vs Jordan Clost (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Tommy Garnett (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42
75:25
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Kegan Allen (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 76:24
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R10 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Loss |
| R11 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 75% | Win |
51st • 3-3-0
83%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.3
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ethan Krischke (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs nikola marcoux (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs randy lavoie (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56
Round 10: Loss vs Dien Tran (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Riley Thomas (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42
Round 12: Loss vs nicolas Jamoulle (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Win |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Loss |
| R11 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Loss |
57th • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.4
Surp
3.2
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Donghee Kim (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
Round 2: Win vs Joseph Vloet (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alexandre Lefebvre (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Sacha Fonseca (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Devon Drury (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Celeste Vautour (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Win |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
50%
Meta
-2.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Daniel murray (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Sunny Yang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Simon Cheng (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 44:56
Round 10: Loss vs Chris Jones (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Loss |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Loss |
dropped • 3-0-0
100%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
1.2
Surp
1.6
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Hunter Platt (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 62:38
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Riley Thomas (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ian Smith (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
dropped • 2-1-0
33%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
1.3
Surp
1.0
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Mike Buttazzoni (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Bobby Bourque (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tsubasa Ueda (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-1-0
67%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
1.2
Surp
0.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Violet Davies (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Noah Clark (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-1-0
67%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
1.1
Surp
1.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Michel Remillard (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Michel Corvino (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Eric Keilback (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 77:23
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 75% | Win |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Eli Teed (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Khamphiene Phommisai (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Constantineau (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.8
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Aidan Barsony (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nicolas Bouffard (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 31:69
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ryan Leveiller (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 70% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs augustine shim (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Farah Alteen-Brooks (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.2
Surp
0.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Megan Curtis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Andrew Padlesky (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Daniel murray (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.