Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
18 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs augustine shim (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Donghee Kim (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 62:38
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Matt Muus (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Donghee Kim (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
78% (7/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
4.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 60% | Win |
| R11 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R13 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R14 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R15 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
3rd • 5-3-0
62%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
4.0
Surp
5.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Kevin Constantineau (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Julien Bergeron (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 68:32
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Jacob Gladman (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Daniel Dreisziger (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Aaron Shantz (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
5.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R11 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R13 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
| R14 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
5th • 6-1-0
86%
Meta
+2.5
Perf
3.2
Surp
4.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Derek Chiu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Lucas Ng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Chris Borecky (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Jacob Gladman (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Eric Lerer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
35:65
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
4.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R13 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
28th • 5-1-0
67%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
2.7
Surp
3.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Brian Fowler (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Daniel murray (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49
Round 3: Win vs Aliasgar Dedanwala (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory
70:30
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Tommy Garnett (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
70:30
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Michael MacLeod (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 68:32
35:65
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs May Atlas (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 20% | Win |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R11 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R12 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 35% | Loss |
10th • 4-2-0
83%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.6
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Emily Froese (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Penny Schankula (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs nicolas Jamoulle (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Cubi Nguyen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
14th • 4-2-0
67%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
2.2
Surp
2.4
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Marcin Duda (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Megan Curtis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Yu Zhou (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 53:47
70:30
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Michael MacLeod (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 68:32
70:30
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs JORDAN BEANGE (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
35:65
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Hunter Platt (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 55% | Win |
| R10 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R11 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R12 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
27th • 4-2-0
67%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
2.7
Surp
4.2
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Hayden Jeanson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Gladman (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Fred God (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49
Round 10: Win vs Ethan Krischke (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
70:30
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Brayden Pritchard (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
35:65
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
4.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R11 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
44th • 3-3-0
83%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.0
Surp
3.4
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kegan Allen (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 57:43
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Eric Keilback (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Nauris Rozenfelds (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Bobby Bourque (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
Round 12: Win vs kayvan zand (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R11 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Win |
56th • 3-3-0
33%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
2.7
Surp
5.8
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Aliasgar Dedanwala (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 22:78
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Derek Chiu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs augustine shim (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40
Round 10: Win vs Michel Corvino (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Nicholas Gaudet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67
Round 12: Win vs Simon Cheng (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
5.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Win |
| R11 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R12 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 35% | Win |
24th • 2-4-0
67%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.3
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jakob Allan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Eric Gaudreault (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Russell Howse (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30
35:65
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Daniel Dreisziger (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Michel Remillard (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R11 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
38th • 2-4-0
83%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
2.9
Surp
0.4
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ryan Ward (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Brayden Pritchard (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
Round 10: Loss vs JORDAN BEANGE (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Nicolas Bouffard (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44
Round 12: Loss vs Xavier Philippe (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Loss |
| R11 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Loss |
| R12 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Loss |
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55
Round 2: Loss vs Tommy Garnett (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 10: Win vs kayvan zand (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Lloyd McBride (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Teran Hancock (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Win |
| R11 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R12 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Chris Jones (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tyler McIntyre (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Ian Schulte (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 52:48
Round 11: Loss vs Russell Howse (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R10 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Loss |
| R11 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Loss |
dropped • 2-1-0
67%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
1.1
Surp
0.8
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nicolas Bouffard (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Yan Garito (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jakob Allan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.5
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Yan Garito (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Maxim Villeneuve (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40
Round 3: Loss vs JORDAN BEANGE (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
1.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Gladman (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Violet Davies (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dien Tran (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Clay DeAngelis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Joey Boily (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55
Round 3: Loss vs Ben Quantrell (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Connie Barnett (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66
Round 2: Loss vs Jakob Allan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.