Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at National Championship

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

18 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Lucas Ng

2nd • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.6

Surp

4.1

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs augustine shim (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Donghee Kim (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

90:10

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 92:8

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Matt Muus (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Donghee Kim (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.07
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R10	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	90%	Win	✓	0.08	0.14
R11	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R13	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.66
R14	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.56
R15	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Donghee Kim

3rd • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.1

Surp

5.5

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Constantineau (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Julien Bergeron (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jacob Gladman (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Daniel Dreisziger (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Aaron Shantz (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

5.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.22
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.78
R11	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.48
R12	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.61
R13	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.41
R14	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tariq Patel

5th • 6-1-0

71%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

4.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Derek Chiu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lucas Ng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Chris Borecky (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jacob Gladman (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

90:10

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 92:8

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Eric Lerer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.54
R11	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	90%	Win	✓	0.08	0.20
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.61
R13	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Clay DeAngelis

28th • 5-1-0

50%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

3.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brian Fowler (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel murray (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Aliasgar Dedanwala (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

75:25

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Tommy Garnett (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Michael MacLeod (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs May Atlas (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.36
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.93
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.77
R11	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.35	1.14
R12	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Jimmy Niro Demers

10th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.5

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Emily Froese (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Penny Schankula (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs nicolas Jamoulle (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Cubi Nguyen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.08
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.15
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.77
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Noah Clark

14th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.1

Surp

2.5

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marcin Duda (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Megan Curtis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yu Zhou (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Michael MacLeod (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 65:35

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs JORDAN BEANGE (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Hunter Platt (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.11
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R10	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.35	1.04
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.84
R12	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Nghia Tran

27th • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.5

Surp

3.9

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hayden Jeanson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Gladman (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Fred God (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Ethan Krischke (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Brayden Pritchard (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.11
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.54
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.63	2.38
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.84
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

nicolas Jamoulle

44th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

3.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kegan Allen (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

90:10

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Eric Keilback (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 92:8

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Nauris Rozenfelds (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Bobby Bourque (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs kayvan zand (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.22
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	90%	Win	✓	0.08	0.04
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Win	✗	0.71	3.59

Chris Jones

56th • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.9

Surp

6.2

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Aliasgar Dedanwala (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 27:73

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Derek Chiu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs augustine shim (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Michel Corvino (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Nicholas Gaudet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Simon Cheng (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

6.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Win	✗	0.71	2.99
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R12	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.62	2.83

Isaak Krut

24th • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jakob Allan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eric Gaudreault (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Russell Howse (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Daniel Dreisziger (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Michel Remillard (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.08
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.34
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R11	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R12	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Courtney MacIsaac

38th • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Ward (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brayden Pritchard (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

75:25

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs JORDAN BEANGE (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Nicolas Bouffard (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Xavier Philippe (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.11
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.23
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R11	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Dien Tran

49th • 1-5-0

50%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

3.2

Surp

3.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tommy Garnett (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs kayvan zand (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Lloyd McBride (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Teran Hancock (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Win	✗	0.71	2.99
R11	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R12	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Derek Chiu

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chris Jones (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tyler McIntyre (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Ian Schulte (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Russell Howse (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.41
R10	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R11	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Kevin Laforest-Harvey

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nicolas Bouffard (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 65:35

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Yan Garito (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jakob Allan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.46

Adrian Malana

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.4

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yan Garito (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Maxim Villeneuve (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs JORDAN BEANGE (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.45
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-

Andrew Padlesky

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Gladman (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Violet Davies (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dien Tran (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Brian Fowler

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Clay DeAngelis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joey Boily (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ben Quantrell (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-

Mike Buttazzoni

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Connie Barnett (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jakob Allan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.