National Championship 2025 - Canada - Ira, Scarlet Revenger (CC)

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

May Atlas

21st • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.3

Surp

3.2

Diff

Deck

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Samuel Guibord (Unknown)

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Cass Emerson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 24:76

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jay Maillet (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Tsubasa Ueda (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Nauris Rozenfelds (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Clay DeAngelis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	1.32
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.37	1.35

Simon Cheng

58th • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.1

Diff

Deck

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Cass Emerson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 24:76

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Russell Howse (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 31:69

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michel Corvino (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Aiden Dee (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Sacha Fonseca (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Chris Jones (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.56
R10	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.53
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Eli Teed

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexandre Lefebvre (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Metallo (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.38
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.35
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.