FaB-Results

Azalea, Ace in the Hole at National Championship 2025 - Canada

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Nauris Rozenfelds
33rd • 4-2-0
67%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
2.8
Surp
3.6
Diff
Deck
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
!
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Xavier Philippe (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
Fang, Dracai of Blades
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Teran Hancock (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs nicolas Jamoulle (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
Ira, Scarlet Revenger
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs May Atlas (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 39:61
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage
65:35
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Jordan Clost (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37
Bobby Bourque
43rd • 4-2-0
83%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
2.9
Surp
3.9
Diff
Deck
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Celeste Vautour (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Connie Barnett (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Brandon Turcotte (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Riley Thomas (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs nicolas Jamoulle (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Jacob Gladman (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59
Eric Lerer
11th • 2-4-0
67%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.4
Diff
Deck
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Brandon Turcotte (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43
Prism, Awakener of Sol
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Gaudet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65
Prism, Awakener of Sol
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
Celeste Vautour
55th • 1-5-0
100%
Meta
-2.5
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.6
Diff
Deck
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Bobby Bourque (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Turcotte (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Cubi Nguyen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43
Fang, Dracai of Blades
!
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Teran Hancock (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage
!
65:35
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Aiden Dee (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Kevin Constantineau (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
Jeff Barber
dropped • 3-1-0
25%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.7
Diff
Deck
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Fred God (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59
Dorinthea Ironsong
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Sacha Fonseca (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Eric Gaudreault (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Xavier Philippe (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 39:61
Eric Gaudreault
dropped • 2-1-0
67%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
1.1
Diff
Deck
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ethan Raymond (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Isaak Krut (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jeff Barber (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Andrew Magri
dropped • 1-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.4
Diff
Deck
Puffin, Hightail
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ian Schulte (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jordan Clost (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 55:45

Legend

Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
Minor Surprise (10-19%)
!!
Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.