National Championship 2025 - Canada - Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn (CC)

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Eric Keilback

22nd • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.4

Surp

4.5

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Julien Bergeron (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs nicolas Jamoulle (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sunny Yang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Ian Smith (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Ethan Raymond (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Ian Schulte (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.12
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.76
R11	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.40	1.35
R12	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Win	✓	0.36	1.27

Yuki Lee Bender

23rd • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

Deck

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Julian Flury (Unknown)

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michel Remillard (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Magri (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Aidan Barsony (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.57
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R12	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Karl Del Duchetto

dropped • 3-0-0

33%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

2.5

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brayden Pritchard (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Dilks (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Philippe Thai (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (1.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.47
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.70
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.35

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.