Vynnset, Iron Maiden at National Championship 2025 - Canada

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

31st • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.5

Diff

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Gaudreault (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Ward (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 62:38

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kegan Allen (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31

Kassai of the Golden Sand

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Michel Remillard (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Eric Keilback (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Michael MacLeod (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.27
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R11	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00

Michael MacLeod

37th • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aiden Dee (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Larouche (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Isaiah Malana (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Noah Clark (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Clay DeAngelis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Ethan Raymond (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.12
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R12	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Julien Bergeron

45th • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Keilback (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Fang, Dracai of Blades

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hunter Platt (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50

Jarl Vetreiði

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hayden Jeanson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Donghee Kim (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Kegan Allen (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Prism, Awakener of Sol

80:20

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Nicholas Gaudet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.73
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R11	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.63

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Smith (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matt Muus (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs May Atlas (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Abhay D Srivastava

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sam Tsafalas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brayden Pritchard (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Maxim Villeneuve (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.