Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2025

Arakni, Marionette

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

augustine shim

dropped • 0-4-0

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Morrison (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chris Jones (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Devon Drury (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Maxim Villeneuve

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Adrian Malana (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Abhay D Srivastava (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.40

Sam Tsafalas

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Abhay D Srivastava (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Chris Borecky (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tommy Garnett (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.47
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

nikola marcoux

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Gaudet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs kayvan zand (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Khamphiene Phommisai (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.93

Marcin Duda

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Noah Clark (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Isaiah Malana (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brandon Smith (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.47	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Ryan Leveiller

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ian Smith (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Devon Drury (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Karl (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Ryan Ward

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Courtney MacIsaac (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ethan Raymond (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 38:62

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jordan Clost (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.