National Championship 2025 - Canada - Verdance, Thorn of the Rose (CC)

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

13 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Matt Muus

5th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.0

Surp

4.3

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs JORDAN BEANGE (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jay Maillet (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Dreisziger (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jakob Allan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Cubi Nguyen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.12
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.35
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.94
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.71
R13	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Jakob Allan

5th • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

4.5

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Isaak Krut (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mike Buttazzoni (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Laforest-Harvey (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Matt Muus (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Tsubasa Ueda (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.51
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.43
R11	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.47
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	2.11
R13	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

JORDAN BEANGE

19th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

5.0

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matt Muus (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Hayden Jeanson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 72:28

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adrian Malana (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Courtney MacIsaac (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Noah Clark (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Nicolas Bouffard (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 72:28

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.16
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.90
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.71	3.00
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R12	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.94

Riley Thomas

54th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.4

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ulises Emiliano Frias Torres (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Derry Tong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Penny Schankula (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Bobby Bourque (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs kayvan zand (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Aiden Dee (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.10
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R12	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.76

Cubi Nguyen

12th • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Chris Borecky (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Emily Froese (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Celeste Vautour (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Aidan Barsony (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Matt Muus (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.60
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R11	CC	Puffin, Hightail	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.73
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Brayden Pritchard

40th • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Karl Del Duchetto (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Abhay D Srivastava (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Courtney MacIsaac (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Farah Alteen-Brooks (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Yan Garito (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.14
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.36
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Tommy Garnett

48th • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs randy lavoie (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 39:61

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dien Tran (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sam Tsafalas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Clay DeAngelis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Brandon Smith (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Alexandre Riel (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.60
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R12	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Brandon Turcotte

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Lerer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Celeste Vautour (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bobby Bourque (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.80
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

David Trinh

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Metallo (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Farah Alteen-Brooks (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jordan Robson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Emily Froese

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cubi Nguyen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Roehl (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Penny Schankula

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

Deck

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alex Knott (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 69:31

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Riley Thomas (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.18
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tyler Shymko

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Eric Christensen (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ian Smith (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Hunter Platt (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.29
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Jordan Robson

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Roehl (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Xavier Philippe (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Trinh (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.