Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X at National Championship 2025

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Daniel Dreisziger

13th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.8

Surp

3.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ben Quantrell (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ethan Krischke (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matt Muus (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Yan Garito (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Isaak Krut (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Donghee Kim (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.16
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.27
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.70
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Jacob Gladman

30th • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Padlesky (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nghia Tran (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexandre Riel (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 70:30

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Donghee Kim (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Bobby Bourque (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.15
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.31
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.26
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.52

Farah Alteen-Brooks

35th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.2

Surp

5.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lloyd McBride (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Trinh (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lucas Morrison (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Brayden Pritchard (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Teran Hancock (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Russell Howse (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

5.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.39
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R11	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.93
R12	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.65	3.02

Daniel murray

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.9

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michel Corvino (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Clay DeAngelis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Violet Davies (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.66

Fred God

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jeff Barber (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mat Himmelman (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.64
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Joseph Vloet

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jean-François Veillette (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Constantineau (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.