Prism, Awakener of Sol at National Championship 2025

Prism, Awakener of Sol

8 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ian Smith

46th • 3-3-0

17%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Leveiller (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tyler Shymko (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Derry Tong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Eric Keilback (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 40:60

25:75

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Xavier Philippe (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 24:76

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Devon Drury (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.18
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R10	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.55	2.31

Nicholas Gaudet

50th • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs nikola marcoux (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Eric Lerer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ian Schulte (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Russell Howse (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Chris Jones (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37

20:80

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Julien Bergeron (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 20:80

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.18
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.37	1.23
R12	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-

Ethan Krischke

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs kayvan zand (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Dreisziger (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 46:54

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Xavier Philippe (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 24:76

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.29
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

David Roehl

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jordan Robson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Aliasgar Dedanwala (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Emily Froese (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.68

Léo Vézinet

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

1.6

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Victor Mercado (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joey Boily (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (1.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.67

Matthew Dilks

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lucas Morrison (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Karl Del Duchetto (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Eric Lerer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.39
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.62

Victor Mercado

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Léo Vézinet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kegan Allen (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 26:74

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mike Buttazzoni (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.67

Khamphiene Phommisai

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yu Zhou (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alexandre Lefebvre (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs nikola marcoux (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.