Kassai of the Golden Sand at National Championship 2025

Kassai of the Golden Sand

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Aaron Shantz

5th • 6-1-0

43%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

4.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dien Tran (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Donghee Kim (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Megan Curtis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Lucas Ng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Donghee Kim (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.16
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.33
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.30
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.38	1.00
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.80
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.38	1.20
R13	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Michel Remillard

17th • 5-1-0

50%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

5.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sunny Yang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Ethan Raymond (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Hunter Platt (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Isaak Krut (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

5.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.12
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.35
R10	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.60	2.20
R11	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.55	2.29

Cass Emerson

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.3

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Simon Cheng (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 83:17

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs May Atlas (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Patrick Larouche (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.09
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.18
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Joey Boily

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler McIntyre (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brian Fowler (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Léo Vézinet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.76
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.