Kassai of the Golden Sand at National Championship 2025

Kassai of the Golden Sand

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Aaron Shantz

5th • 6-1-0

100%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

4.4

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dien Tran (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Donghee Kim (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Megan Curtis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Lucas Ng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Donghee Kim (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.12
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.24
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.40	1.06
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.33
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.40	1.27
R13	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Michel Remillard

17th • 5-1-0

83%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

2.4

Surp

3.8

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sunny Yang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 68:32

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Ethan Raymond (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Hunter Platt (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Isaak Krut (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.12
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.19
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R10	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.39
R11	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.70

Cass Emerson

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.4

Diff

Deck

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Simon Cheng (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 76:24

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs May Atlas (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 76:24

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Patrick Larouche (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.13
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.26
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Joey Boily

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler McIntyre (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brian Fowler (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Léo Vézinet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.57
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.