National Championship 2025 - Canada - Florian, Rotwood Harbinger (CC)

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Russell Howse

42nd • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

4.5

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Philippe Thai (Dash I/O) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Simon Cheng (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Isaak Krut (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Nicholas Gaudet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 62:38

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Derek Chiu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Farah Alteen-Brooks (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.18
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.38	1.15
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.70	3.22
R12	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Patrick Larouche

dropped • 3-0-0

67%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

1.5

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mat Himmelman (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 41:59

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael MacLeod (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Cass Emerson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.43
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.26
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

Alex Knott

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.4

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Penny Schankula (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Aiden Dee (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 69:31

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Devon Drury (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.36
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Tyler McIntyre

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joey Boily (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Philippe Thai (Dash I/O) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Derek Chiu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R2	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.