Rhinar, Reckless Rampage at National Championship 2025

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Aiden Dee

53rd • 3-3-0

17%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

4.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael MacLeod (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 40:60

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Knott (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 31:69

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mat Himmelman (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 46:54

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Simon Cheng (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Celeste Vautour (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

15:85

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Riley Thomas (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 17:83

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.56
R10	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Win	✗	0.63	2.64
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-

Jordan Clost

39th • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexandre Riel (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Magri (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Ward (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Brandon Smith (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Ian Schulte (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Nauris Rozenfelds (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.66
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.61	2.26
R11	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Eric Christensen

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Shymko (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 17:83

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs None (Unknown)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nicolas Bouffard (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.