Jarl Vetreiði at National Championship 2025

Jarl Vetreiði

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Nicolas Bouffard

25th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.6

Surp

3.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Laforest-Harvey (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Karl (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 69:31

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Eric Christensen (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Hunter Platt (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Courtney MacIsaac (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

25:75

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs JORDAN BEANGE (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.18
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R10	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.65	2.75
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Michael Metallo

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.1

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Trinh (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eli Teed (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 39:61

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sacha Fonseca (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.63
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.50

Hayden Jeanson

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs JORDAN BEANGE (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Julien Bergeron (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.