National Championship 2025 - Canada - Jarl Vetreiði (CC)

Jarl Vetreiði

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Nicolas Bouffard

25th • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.8

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Laforest-Harvey (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Karl (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Eric Christensen (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Hunter Platt (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Courtney MacIsaac (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs JORDAN BEANGE (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R10	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.56	2.20
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Michael Metallo

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.2

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Trinh (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eli Teed (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 31:69

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sacha Fonseca (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (1.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Win	✗	0.72	0.62
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.60

Hayden Jeanson

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs JORDAN BEANGE (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Julien Bergeron (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.