FaB-Results

Puffin, Hightail at National Championship 2025 - Canada

Puffin, Hightail

Puffin, Hightail

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Aidan Barsony
16th • 5-1-0
67%
Meta
+2.6
Perf
2.7
Surp
4.8
Diff
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
!
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Andrew Karl (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
Betsy, Skin in the Game
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Yu Zhou (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Yan Garito (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
Fai, Rising Rebellion
R10
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Alexandre Riel (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
5:95
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Cubi Nguyen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 4:96
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
R12
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Ian Schulte
26th • 5-1-0
50%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
3.2
Surp
4.9
Diff
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Andrew Magri (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
Fang, Dracai of Blades
!
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Teran Hancock (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
Prism, Awakener of Sol
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Gaudet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Derek Chiu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage
R11
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Jordan Clost (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
R12
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Eric Keilback (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Legend

Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
Minor Surprise (10-19%)
!!
Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.