Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at National Championship

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Yan Garito

20th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

3.9

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Adrian Malana (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Laforest-Harvey (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aidan Barsony (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Daniel Dreisziger (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Alexandre Riel (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Brayden Pritchard (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.09
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.19
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R11	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.77

Isaiah Malana

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marcin Duda (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael MacLeod (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.62
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jean-François Veillette

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joseph Vloet (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alexandre Riel (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ulises Emiliano Frias Torres (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.43
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.