Fai, Rising Rebellion at National Championship 2025 - Canada
Fai, Rising Rebellion
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
32nd • 3-3-0
83%
Meta
0.0
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.5
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jordan Clost (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jean-François Veillette (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Gladman (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 30:70
R10
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Aidan Barsony (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R11
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Yan Garito (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
70:30
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Tommy Garnett (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 70:30
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 30% | Loss |
| R10 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Loss |
| R11 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.