Azalea, Ace in the Hole
12 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
11th • 5-1-0
50%
Meta
+2.3
Perf
3.1
Surp
5.6
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nick Kerr (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Dylan Strachan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 3: Win vs Grayson Ziogas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Round 10: Win vs Amos Norris (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Joshua Baines (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
5.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R10 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
19th • 4-2-0
33%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
3.2
Surp
4.7
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Samuel Gisborne (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59
Round 2: Win vs Karel Doorman (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Georgia Sumner (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Cayle Mccreath (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Max Middleton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 41:59
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Jared Fung (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
4.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
| R10 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Loss |
| R11 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Win |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
32nd • 4-2-0
67%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
2.2
Surp
3.2
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Roger Miller (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kieran Carnegie (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 71:29
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jesse Potini (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Pierce Lloyd (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Sean Stanley (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Nathan Samu (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Cayle Mccreath (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Andrew Peek (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 55:45
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nick Kerr (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
Round 10: Loss vs Rommel Estalilla (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R10 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.2
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joshua Wellington (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nick Pearce (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Henry Moore (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Liam Fisher (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R10 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
1.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Rhys Hanrahan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Lynnette Nattrass (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jasin Long (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Sam G (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Caleb Sinclair (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.2
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Rommel Estalilla (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Sean Delaney (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Edward Kim (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.1
Surp
0.2
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dexter Rei-Maynard (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Justin Wong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 34:66
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Digl Dixon (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs James Shirley (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Lucinda Robertson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jasin Long (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Zach Johnson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Samuel Johnson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tamsyn Willow Lawn Stewart (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
dropped • 0-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Barlow (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tamsyn Willow Lawn Stewart (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Lucinda Robertson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.