National Championship 2025 - New Zealand - Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty (CC)

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Dennis Zhang

3rd • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Samuel Johnson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Falconer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kiki Labad (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Adrienne Morales (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Oliver Berry (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 33:67

20:80

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Cameron Hay (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 19:81

85:15

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Matt Rogers (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 85:15

35:65

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Oliver Berry (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.08
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.19
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.31
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.88
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R13	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.37
R14	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Justin Wong

40th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.4

Diff

Deck

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Elliott Nichols (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 85:15

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Patrick Darge (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 66:34

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sean Yang (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 85:15

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Karel Doorman (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Ben Kent (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Grayson Ziogas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.04
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.20
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.12
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Gary Lynch

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Baines (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 33:67

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jason Thomson-Sheck (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 85:15

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ben Clarke (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

20:80

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Quazi Tahmeedzaman (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.12
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.53
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Harris Lenz

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Isaac Olssen (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Greg Mansfield (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Seb Hart (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.06
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.