Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty at National Championship

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Dennis Zhang

3rd • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Samuel Johnson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Falconer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kiki Labad (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Adrienne Morales (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

25:75

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Oliver Berry (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 23:77

20:80

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Cameron Hay (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 19:81

85:15

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Matt Rogers (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 83:17

25:75

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Oliver Berry (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.18
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.41
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.89
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R13	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.43
R14	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Justin Wong

40th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.4

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Elliott Nichols (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 83:17

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Patrick Darge (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 66:34

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sean Yang (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 83:17

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Karel Doorman (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Ben Kent (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Grayson Ziogas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.04
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.20
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.13
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Gary Lynch

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Baines (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 23:77

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jason Thomson-Sheck (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 83:17

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ben Clarke (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

20:80

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Quazi Tahmeedzaman (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.13
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.53
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Harris Lenz

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Isaac Olssen (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Greg Mansfield (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Seb Hart (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (1.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Win	✗	0.77	1.41
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.