Prism, Awakener of Sol at National Championship 2025

Prism, Awakener of Sol

13 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Rob Davenport

9th • 6-0-0

83%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

5.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sam Payne (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mickail Lim (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Ben Dodd (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Nish Nimmagadda (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

5.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.15
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.37	1.12
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	1.26
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	2.16

Henry Moore

21st • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.4

Surp

3.7

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Herbert Fairlie (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 24:76

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lawson Maric (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dylan Strachan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Nish Nimmagadda (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Sam Payne (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Joshua Baines (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.36
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.69
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.37	1.34

Amos Norris

34th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.9

Surp

3.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Goessi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Roger Miller (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ben Thomas (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Nick Pearce (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Aaron Curtis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Sean Stanley (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.11
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.34
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.55	2.31

Michael Collins

16th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.8

Surp

3.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jaden De-Arth (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dan Griffin (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Danne Blomfield (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Joshua Baines (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Quazi Tahmeedzaman (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	1.26
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	1.37

James Cain

25th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sam Davison (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mickail Lim (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mike Ngawati (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Marshall Stevenson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Cayle Mccreath (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Dexter Rei-Maynard (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.11
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.96
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Win	✗	0.69	2.78
R11	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R12	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Karel Doorman

27th • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jason Thomson-Sheck (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mae Jane Collett (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Justin Wong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Darryn Ying (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

25:75

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Adam Little (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.19
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.52
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Dr. Daniel McKay

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.3

Surp

2.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lucinda Robertson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rob Davenport (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Karel Doorman (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Dexter Rei-Maynard (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Dave Laffan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.12
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R10	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	1.51

Kiki Labad

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Qi Wei Wu (Unknown)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nicholas Barlow (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.77
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Mickail Lim

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sean Stanley (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Cain (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rob Davenport (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.39
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Roger Miller

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Lester (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Amos Norris (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zach Johnson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.14

Joseph Poata

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.3

Surp

1.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sean Yang (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mike Ngawati (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 26:74

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Samuel Gisborne (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.11

Richard Gillingham

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Digl Dixon (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 36:64

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Wakefield (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Ward (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.36
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Joshua Benfell

dropped • 1-1-0

Meta

+0.3

Perf

0.8

Surp

1.1

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Elijah Hewlett (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 26:74

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sam Smith (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (0.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.11

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.