Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at National Championship

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jacob Maxwell

30th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.4

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gavin Wu (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Elliott Nichols (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joshua Wellington (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Lucas Ward (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs James Shirley (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jasin Long (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.36
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.61
R10	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R11	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.42
R12	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Sam Payne

45th • 1-5-0

67%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rob Davenport (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dexter Rei-Maynard (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kieran Carnegie (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Greg Mansfield (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Henry Moore (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Liam Fisher (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.35	1.03
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R12	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Kieran Carnegie

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Marshall (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Lester (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sam Payne (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.