Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at National Championship

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jacob Maxwell

30th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gavin Wu (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Elliott Nichols (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joshua Wellington (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Lucas Ward (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs James Shirley (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 64:36

75:25

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jasin Long (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.30
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.64
R10	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R11	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	65%	Win	✓	0.36	1.17
R12	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-

Sam Payne

45th • 1-5-0

50%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rob Davenport (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dexter Rei-Maynard (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kieran Carnegie (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Greg Mansfield (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 68:32

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Henry Moore (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Liam Fisher (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.94
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R12	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kieran Carnegie

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Marshall (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Lester (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sam Payne (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.