FaB-Results

Vynnset, Iron Maiden at National Championship 2025 - New Zealand

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Liam Fisher
36th • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.2
Surp
3.6
Diff
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Darryn Ying (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80
Arakni, Marionette
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Dylan Jestin (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 62:38
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs James Gilchrist (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Dylan Strachan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Ben Dodd (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Sam Payne (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
Ryan Williams
dropped • 0-3-0
0%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
Ira, Scarlet Revenger
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jordan Schroder (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57
Dorinthea Ironsong
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 38:62
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jordan Whitelock (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80

Legend

Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
Minor Surprise (10-19%)
!!
Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.