Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at National Championship

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

8 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Oliver Berry

1st • 8-1-0

56%

Meta

+2.8

Perf

3.6

Surp

4.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marshall Stevenson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adrienne Morales (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexander McCallum (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

75:25

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Darryn Ying (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Dennis Zhang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 77:23

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Lucas Ward (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Alexander McCallum (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

75:25

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Dennis Zhang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 77:23

75:25

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Cameron Hay (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.10
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.40
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.36
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.51
R11	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.46
R12	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R13	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.55
R14	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.59
R15	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.77

Joshua Baines

24th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.8

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gary Lynch (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 77:23

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Herbert Fairlie (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Thomas Falconer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Michael Collins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Nick Pearce (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Henry Moore (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.06
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.34
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.63	2.38
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Ben Dodd

29th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Edward Kim (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Anthony Wedge (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Day (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Rob Davenport (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Liam Fisher (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 65:35

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Seb Hart (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R11	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.35	1.14
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Greg Mansfield

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jordan Whitelock (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Harris Lenz (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yom Ambrose (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 58:42

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Sam Payne (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.12
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.58
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Caleb Sinclair

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Cameron Hay (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jordan Whitelock (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mark Tung (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.31
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.94

James Gilchrist

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tamsyn Willow Lawn Stewart (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Seb Hart (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Liam Fisher (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.15
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.62

Michael Day

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Pierce Lloyd (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ben Dodd (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.15
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tamesi Harman

dropped • 0-2-1

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Evan Macdonald (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marshall Stevenson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Isaac Olssen (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	65%	Draw	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.