National Championship 2025 - New Zealand - Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X (CC)

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alexander McCallum

5th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.6

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Bastion (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Edward Kim (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Oliver Berry (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jared Fung (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Adrienne Morales (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Oliver Berry (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.09
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.22
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	1.12
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	1.22
R13	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Samuel Gisborne

54th • 1-5-0

83%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mae Jane Collett (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rommel Estalilla (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joseph Poata (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Mike Ngawati (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs None (Unknown)

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Joshua Wellington (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R11	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

David Marshall

dropped • 5-0-0

100%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

5.1

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kieran Carnegie (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mathew Fletcher (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adam Little (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Hamish Morgan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.18
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.28
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.39
R10	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R11	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.51	2.26

Gavin Wu

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.3

Surp

1.1

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Maxwell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nish Nimmagadda (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Rinsma (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.30
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Jude Wightman

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.6

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aaron Curtis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jasin Long (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 66:34

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dave Laffan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.24
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.40
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Sam Smith

dropped • 0-2-1

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Quazi Tahmeedzaman (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joshua Benfell (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Sam G (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Draw	✓	0.56	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.