Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X at National Championship 2025

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alexander McCallum

5th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.4

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Bastion (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Edward Kim (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Oliver Berry (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jared Fung (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Adrienne Morales (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Oliver Berry (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.08
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.17
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	1.03
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	1.12
R13	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Samuel Gisborne

54th • 1-5-0

100%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mae Jane Collett (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rommel Estalilla (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joseph Poata (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Mike Ngawati (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 55:45

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs None (Unknown)

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Joshua Wellington (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R10	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R11	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

David Marshall

dropped • 5-0-0

100%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

4.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kieran Carnegie (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mathew Fletcher (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adam Little (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs None (Unknown)

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Hamish Morgan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.15
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.26
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.33
R10	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R11	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.98

Gavin Wu

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Maxwell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nish Nimmagadda (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Rinsma (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.65

Jude Wightman

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aaron Curtis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

90:10

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jasin Long (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 89:11

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dave Laffan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	90%	Win	✓	0.11	0.11
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Sam Smith

dropped • 0-2-1

67%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Quazi Tahmeedzaman (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joshua Benfell (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Sam G (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Draw	✓	0.64	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.