Kassai of the Golden Sand at National Championship 2025

Kassai of the Golden Sand

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Marshall Stevenson

33rd • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Oliver Berry (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tamesi Harman (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Barlow (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs James Cain (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Ben Thomas (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Max Middleton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.38
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.35
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R12	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Win	✓	0.35	1.24

Ryan Rinsma

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dave Laffan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Evan Macdonald (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gavin Wu (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.65
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Sam G

dropped • 0-2-1

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Pierce Lloyd (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mark Tung (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Sam Smith (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Draw	✗	0.36	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.