Cindra, Dracai of Retribution at National Championship 2025

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

20 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Seb Hart

17th • 5-1-0

67%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

5.1

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dan Griffin (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Gilchrist (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Harris Lenz (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jasin Long (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Nik Smith (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Ben Dodd (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.16
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.68
R10	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Win	✗	0.69	3.14
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.98

Jared Fung

23rd • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nish Nimmagadda (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jesse Potini (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Pierce Lloyd (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Ben Kent (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Alexander McCallum (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Mae Jane Collett (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.14
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Ben Kent

28th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

3.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Quazi Tahmeedzaman (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Rowley (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jared Fung (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Justin Wong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Samuel Bates (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.61	2.50
R12	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Pierce Lloyd

37th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.7

Surp

3.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sam G (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Day (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jared Fung (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Matthew Lester (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jacob Goessi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Quazi Tahmeedzaman (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.23
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.16
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.44
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.57

Aaron Curtis

18th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

3.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jude Wightman (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ross Newson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Hamish Morgan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 31:69

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Nathan Samu (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Amos Norris (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Ben Thomas (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R10	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.57
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.57

Adrienne Morales

10th • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Holding (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Oliver Berry (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Goessi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Lucas Ward (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Alexander McCallum (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.13
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R11	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R12	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Emanuel Tozer

52nd • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ross Newson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Cayle Mccreath (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 31:69

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jordan Schroder (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 44:56

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Hamish Morgan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 31:69

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Joshua Wellington (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Dave Laffan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R10	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Joshua Wellington

53rd • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.2

Surp

3.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dylan Strachan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs None (Unknown)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Maxwell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Dave Laffan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Emanuel Tozer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Samuel Gisborne (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.63	2.91

Sean Stanley

46th • 1-5-0

83%

Meta

-2.4

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mickail Lim (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Bastion (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jess Arnesen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Samuel Johnson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 73:27

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Matthew Lester (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Amos Norris (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.75
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

David Rowley

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs john jaurigue (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 62:38

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Keegan Walls (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 80:20

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ben Kent (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Anthony Wedge (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Sam Davison (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.14
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.13
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Sean Delaney

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs James Griffin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Dunlop (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Herbert Fairlie (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Max Middleton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 31:69

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Dexter Rei-Maynard (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.26
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.50
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R10	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R11	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Mathew Fletcher

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lawson Maric (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Marshall (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Keegan Walls (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 80:20

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Isaac Olssen (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.24
R10	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jaden De-Arth

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Collins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Adam Little (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nik Smith (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 31:69

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.21
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

jordon Williamson

dropped • 3-0-0

100%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nikola Campbell (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nathan Samu (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs James Shirley (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.44
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

Danne Blomfield

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yom Ambrose (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jayden Allan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Collins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.40
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.86

Ben Clarke

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Adam Little (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Isaac Olssen (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gary Lynch (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Jess Arnesen

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Grayson Ziogas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Goessi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sean Stanley (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Nicholas Barlow

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lynnette Nattrass (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kiki Labad (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Marshall Stevenson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.42
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Nick Kerr

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nick Pearce (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nicholas Holding (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Poll (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.52
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Ross Newson

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Emanuel Tozer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Curtis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Peek (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 77:23

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.38

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.