Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at National Championship 2025

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Adam Little

5th • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.9

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ben Clarke (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jaden De-Arth (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Marshall (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 32:68

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Cameron Hay (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Nathan Samu (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Karel Doorman (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24

30:70

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Cameron Hay (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.21
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.42
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.57
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.69
R13	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Nathan Samu

14th • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

4.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dylan Jestin (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs jordon Williamson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dexter Rei-Maynard (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Aaron Curtis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Adam Little (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Matthew Lester (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.21
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.57
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	2.43
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	1.43

Herbert Fairlie

dropped • 3-1-0

25%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.8

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Henry Moore (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Baines (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sean Delaney (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jacob Goessi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.10
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.60
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.09
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Ryan Bastion

dropped • 2-1-0

Meta

+1.0

Perf

1.7

Surp

2.8

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander McCallum (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 32:68

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sean Stanley (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.97
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.80

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.