National Championship 2025 - New Zealand - Arakni, Marionette (CC)

Arakni, Marionette

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Nish Nimmagadda

13th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.8

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jared Fung (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gavin Wu (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rommel Estalilla (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Henry Moore (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

80:20

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jasin Long (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 78:22

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Rob Davenport (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.21
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.94
R11	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.67
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Grayson Ziogas

48th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.5

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jess Arnesen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Elijah Hewlett (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nick Pearce (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs James Shirley (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Rommel Estalilla (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Justin Wong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.15
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.22
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R11	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R12	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.52	2.13

Dylan Jestin

55th • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.5

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nathan Samu (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Liam Fisher (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lawson Maric (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Evan Macdonald (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Mike Ngawati (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R11	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R12	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00

Lawson Maric

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mathew Fletcher (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Henry Moore (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dylan Jestin (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.