National Championship 2025 - New Zealand - Florian, Rotwood Harbinger (CC)

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Evan Macdonald

38th • 4-1-1

83%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

4.1

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Tamesi Harman (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Rinsma (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Anthony Wedge (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Dylan Jestin (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 65:35

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jayden Allan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Nik Smith (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Draw	✗	0.30	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.35	1.04
R11	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.97
R12	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.64

Samuel Bates

20th • 3-2-1

50%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

4.1

Diff

Deck

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lucas Ward (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Cameron Hay (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lachie Kennedy (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Draw vs Ben Thomas (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Isaac Olssen (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Ben Kent (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.09
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Draw	✗	0.31	-
R11	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.42
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	2.58

James Shirley

41st • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rhys Hanrahan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lachie Kennedy (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 69:31

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs jordon Williamson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Grayson Ziogas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jacob Maxwell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Isaac Olssen (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.18
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.18
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.35	1.04
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R12	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Thomas Falconer

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nik Smith (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 41:59

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Baines (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.