Jarl Vetreiði at National Championship 2025

Jarl Vetreiði

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Cayle Mccreath

12th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

4.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Poll (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Emanuel Tozer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 69:31

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Cameron Hay (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Mae Jane Collett (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs James Cain (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

25:75

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Darryn Ying (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.13
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.18
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.25
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Win	✗	0.68	3.05
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Max Middleton

43rd • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs James Wakefield (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Georgia Sumner (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Samuel Johnson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Sean Delaney (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 69:31

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Mae Jane Collett (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Marshall Stevenson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.88
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R12	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Nik Smith

44th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

3.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Falconer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Donald Tang (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jaden De-Arth (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 69:31

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jayden Allan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Seb Hart (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Evan Macdonald (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.45
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.26
R10	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.61	2.27
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R12	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Hamish Morgan

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs kenny forrester (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Darryn Ying (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Aaron Curtis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Emanuel Tozer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs David Marshall (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.32
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	70%	Win	✓	0.31	1.05
R11	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.