National Championship 2025 - New Zealand - Jarl Vetreiði (CC)

Jarl Vetreiði

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Cayle Mccreath

12th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.3

Surp

4.2

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Poll (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Emanuel Tozer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Cameron Hay (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Mae Jane Collett (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs James Cain (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Darryn Ying (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.13
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.25
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.62	2.57
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Max Middleton

43rd • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs James Wakefield (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Georgia Sumner (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Samuel Johnson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Sean Delaney (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Mae Jane Collett (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Marshall Stevenson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.22
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.35	1.03
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R12	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Nik Smith

44th • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

3.7

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Falconer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 43:57

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Donald Tang (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jaden De-Arth (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jayden Allan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Seb Hart (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Evan Macdonald (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.57
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R10	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	30%	Win	✗	0.69	2.84
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R12	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Hamish Morgan

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.7

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs kenny forrester (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 67:33

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Darryn Ying (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Aaron Curtis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Emanuel Tozer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs David Marshall (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.12
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.37
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.35	1.24
R11	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.