Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at National Championship 2025 - New Zealand
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
13 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
2nd • 8-1-0
78%
Meta
+2.5
Perf
3.1
Surp
4.3
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Caleb Sinclair (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Samuel Bates (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 75:25
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Cayle Mccreath (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 73:27
70:30
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Adam Little (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29
70:30
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Matt Rogers (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 71:29
80:20
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Dennis Zhang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19
70:30
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Adam Little (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Darryn Ying (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
25:75
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Oliver Berry (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
78% (7/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
4.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 75% | Win |
| R10 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
| R11 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Win |
| R12 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R13 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
| R14 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R15 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
3rd • 6-2-0
75%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
2.6
Surp
3.5
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Liam Fisher (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 80:20
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Hamish Morgan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 73:27
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jayden Allan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 78:22
25:75
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Oliver Berry (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
Round 11: Win vs Karel Doorman (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
75:25
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Cayle Mccreath (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 73:27
80:20
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Lucas Ward (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 78:22
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Cameron Hay (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 80% | Win |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R11 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R12 | Jarl Vetreiði | 75% | Win |
| R13 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 80% | Win |
| R14 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
49th • 5-1-0
50%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
2.7
Surp
5.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ryan Rinsma (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 49:51
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Digl Dixon (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 78:22
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jude Wightman (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Joshua Wellington (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Emanuel Tozer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
5.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R11 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
31st • 3-2-1
67%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.5
Surp
2.1
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Mike Ngawati (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 76:24
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jordan Schroder (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 78:22
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Amos Norris (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62
75:25
R10 CC
Round 10: Draw vs Samuel Bates (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 75:25
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Marshall Stevenson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Aaron Curtis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 75% | Draw |
| R11 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
42nd • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.9
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Sam Smith (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ben Kent (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Elijah Hewlett (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 76:24
80:20
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Gary Lynch (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Michael Collins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Pierce Lloyd (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 75% | Win |
| R10 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R11 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
47th • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
2.6
Surp
4.1
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs James Cain (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Yom Ambrose (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 34:66
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Donald Tang (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 78:22
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Nikola Campbell (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs David Rowley (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Round 12: Loss vs Rommel Estalilla (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
4.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 80% | Win |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R12 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
26th • 2-4-0
33%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.8
Surp
2.4
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Michael Day (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Nikola Campbell (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Bastion (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Jaden De-Arth (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Rob Davenport (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Michael Collins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Loss |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R11 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R12 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
51st • 2-4-0
33%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.2
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Amos Norris (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jess Arnesen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Adrienne Morales (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
70:30
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Herbert Fairlie (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Pierce Lloyd (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Round 12: Loss vs Mike Ngawati (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R12 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 75% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
75%
Meta
-1.9
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs jordon Williamson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas Holding (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Sam Davison (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-0-0
67%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
1.3
Surp
1.8
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Anthony Wedge (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Max Middleton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 73:27
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mae Jane Collett (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
0.7
Surp
0.3
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Greg Mansfield (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Caleb Sinclair (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ryan Williams (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 80:20
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
0.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
1.3
Surp
1.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Adrienne Morales (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nick Kerr (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nikola Campbell (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
dropped • 1-2-0
0%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.8
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs James Gilchrist (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Lynnette Nattrass (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Wairongo Ihimaera (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
0% (0/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.