Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
13 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
2nd • 8-1-0
78%
Meta
+2.7
Perf
3.3
Surp
4.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Caleb Sinclair (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Samuel Bates (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 69:31
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Cayle Mccreath (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 72:28
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Adam Little (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34
70:30
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Matt Rogers (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 68:32
80:20
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Dennis Zhang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19
65:35
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Adam Little (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Darryn Ying (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
30:70
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Oliver Berry (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
78% (7/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
4.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Win |
| R10 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R11 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Win |
| R12 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R13 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R14 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R15 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
3rd • 6-2-0
75%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
2.8
Surp
3.8
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Liam Fisher (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Hamish Morgan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 72:28
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jayden Allan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 67:33
30:70
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Oliver Berry (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Karel Doorman (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59
70:30
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Cayle Mccreath (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 72:28
65:35
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Lucas Ward (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 67:33
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Cameron Hay (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R11 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R12 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Win |
| R13 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Win |
| R14 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
49th • 5-1-0
50%
Meta
+1.9
Perf
2.7
Surp
5.3
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ryan Rinsma (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Digl Dixon (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 67:33
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jude Wightman (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Joshua Wellington (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Emanuel Tozer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
5.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
31st • 3-2-1
67%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.7
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Mike Ngawati (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 75:25
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jordan Schroder (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 67:33
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Amos Norris (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59
70:30
R10 CC
Round 10: Draw vs Samuel Bates (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 69:31
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Marshall Stevenson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Aaron Curtis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Draw |
| R11 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
42nd • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.8
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Sam Smith (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ben Kent (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Elijah Hewlett (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 75:25
80:20
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Gary Lynch (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Michael Collins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Pierce Lloyd (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 75% | Win |
| R10 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R11 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
47th • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
2.8
Surp
4.2
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs James Cain (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Yom Ambrose (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 39:61
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Donald Tang (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 67:33
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Nikola Campbell (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs David Rowley (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Round 12: Loss vs Rommel Estalilla (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
4.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R12 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
26th • 2-4-0
33%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.8
Surp
2.4
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Michael Day (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Nikola Campbell (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Bastion (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Jaden De-Arth (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Rob Davenport (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Michael Collins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Loss |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R12 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
51st • 2-4-0
33%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.4
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Amos Norris (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jess Arnesen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Adrienne Morales (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Herbert Fairlie (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Pierce Lloyd (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Round 12: Loss vs Mike Ngawati (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R10 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R12 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 75% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
75%
Meta
-1.9
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs jordon Williamson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas Holding (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Sam Davison (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-0-0
67%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
1.1
Surp
1.7
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Anthony Wedge (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 75:25
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Max Middleton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 72:28
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mae Jane Collett (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
0.8
Surp
0.4
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Greg Mansfield (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Caleb Sinclair (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ryan Williams (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
0.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
1.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Adrienne Morales (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nick Kerr (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nikola Campbell (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
dropped • 1-2-0
0%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.8
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs James Gilchrist (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Lynnette Nattrass (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Wairongo Ihimaera (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
0% (0/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.