Dorinthea Ironsong at National Championship 2025 - New

Dorinthea Ironsong

Dorinthea Ironsong

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

5th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

4.2

Diff

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Keegan Walls (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Williams (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 63:37

Fang, Dracai of Blades

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs john jaurigue (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Alexander McCallum (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Cameron Hay (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 32:68

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Nick Pearce (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

15:85

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 15:85

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.19
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.58
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.98
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.40
R13	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

1.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

Prism, Awakener of Sol

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joseph Poata (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

Dorinthea Ironsong

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zach Johnson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Justin Wong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 15:85

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (1.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.36
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-

Elliott Nichols

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Wong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 15:85

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Maxwell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

Dash I/O

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs James Griffin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.82

Jason Thomson-Sheck

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

Prism, Awakener of Sol

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Karel Doorman (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gary Lynch (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 15:85

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs kenny forrester (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 73:27

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.46

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Wairongo Ihimaera (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43

Dorinthea Ironsong

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sean Yang (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Prism, Awakener of Sol

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Roger Miller (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.