National Championship 2025 - New Zealand - Fang, Dracai of Blades (CC)

Fang, Dracai of Blades

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Rommel Estalilla

39th • 5-1-0

17%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

3.4

Surp

9.0

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Dunlop (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Samuel Gisborne (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nish Nimmagadda (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jonathan Poll (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Grayson Ziogas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Sam Davison (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

9.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.76
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Win	✗	0.65	2.52
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.65	2.80
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	2.67

James Wakefield

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Max Middleton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Richard Gillingham (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dan Griffin (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jesse Potini

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

Deck

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Donald Tang (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 71:29

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jared Fung (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Lester (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.16
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

john jaurigue

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Rowley (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 37:63

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Griffin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.25
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.