Ira, Scarlet Revenger at National Championship 2025 - New

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

5th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

2.9

Surp

4.9

Diff

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Samuel Bates (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 43:57

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs kenny forrester (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Prism, Awakener of Sol

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Richard Gillingham (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 64:36

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jacob Maxwell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Adrienne Morales (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Oliver Berry (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

20:80

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Darryn Ying (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.27
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.84
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.30
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.38	1.16
R13	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Peek (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Danne Blomfield (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Darryn Ying (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 22:78

Jarl Vetreiði

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Nik Smith (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Evan Macdonald (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.33
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R10	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R11	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

Prism, Awakener of Sol

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Richard Gillingham (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 64:36

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dave Laffan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 22:78

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Patrick Darge (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.21
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.72

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.9

Diff

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ben Dodd (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander McCallum (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 33:67

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Dunlop (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.72

Jordan Schroder

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

1.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Williams (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 57:43

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ben Thomas (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 22:78

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Emanuel Tozer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (1.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

Fang, Dracai of Blades

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jesse Potini (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 32:68

Jarl Vetreiði

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nik Smith (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sam Davison (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.