National Championship 2025 - Australia - Prism, Awakener of Sol (CC)

Prism, Awakener of Sol

15 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Liam Bennett

17th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.6

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Cody Gebert (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Eric Glumac (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Portelli (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Zachary Cauchi (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 32:68

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Matthew Angove (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Tiger Mckenzie (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.10
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R10	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.87

Alexander Dobler

41st • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.6

Surp

3.3

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Zachary Gardiner (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Johnson : ) (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Zachary Cauchi (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Oliver Hill (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Nick McGrath (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs benji muehlebach (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.38
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.50

Euan Ansell

14th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Oliver Hill (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Steven Young (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Faron Swingler (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Justin Lim (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Ethan Dominy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Zachary Cauchi (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.07
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.33	1.08
R12	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

German Glukhov

28th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs William Bucknall (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Evan Bicknell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Beckett McNeil (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 34:66

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Spencer Horton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

20:80

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Henry De Malmanche (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 19:81

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Ethan Dominy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.10
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.49
R11	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Calvin Yu

63rd • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.0

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ethan Dominy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andy Pham (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Ryan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Freeman Monika (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Louis Jia (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Troy Wilson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R11	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.57	2.22
R12	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ryan Taylor

45th • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.4

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joel Gibbons (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Murray Shaw (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 19:81

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Samuel Coffey (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Max Chapman (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Daniel Cooper (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Peter Katsakis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R10	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Andreas Andronicou

60th • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

Deck

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Liko Pepine (Unknown)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Portelli (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Hill (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Tye Soens (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Dev Gordon (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 34:66

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Fahad Rahman (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R11	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Kael Sabben

65th • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.2

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Madeline Southwood (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 59:41

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Zachary Cauchi (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 32:68

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Justin Lim (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Danial Affendy (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Roy Lai (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jonathan Luey (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.13
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.33	1.08
R12	CC	Puffin, Hightail	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Alexander Van Daalen

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.1

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tom Bradford (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Danial Affendy (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Frank Karamaroudis (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Blake Godenzi (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Philip Nagle (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.12
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Puffin, Hightail	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Yousef Mnahy

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

Deck

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Frank Karamaroudis (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Remi Grasset (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Taine Markley (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Sable Wang-Wills (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.14
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.70
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Sable Wang-Wills

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nick Butcher (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alessandro Pena (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tom Jenkins (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Yousef Mnahy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.23
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

John Cavenett

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

3.1

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tiger Mckenzie (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Valentine Nguyen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jemima Evans (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (1.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.92
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	20%	Win	✗	0.78	2.18

Jarrod Bowler

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.1

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Clark (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Spencer (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs James MacDonald (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.15
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Ruairidh Wasson

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs benji muehlebach (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Troy Wilson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Robert Piper (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Samuel Marshall

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jordan Finch (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tom Jenkins (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tom Nguyen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.