Cindra, Dracai of Retribution at National Championship 2025

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

17 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Nick Butcher

2nd • 7-2-0

44%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

4.4

Surp

8.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sable Wang-Wills (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adam Gale (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Eric Glumac (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Gary Manttan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Damian Moss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Justin Lim (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Shaun Leow (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

35:65

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Damian Moss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

40:60

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Justin Lim (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

8.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.11
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.55
R11	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.78
R12	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.84
R13	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.97
R14	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.63	2.26
R15	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Danial Affendy

38th • 5-1-0

83%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.1

Surp

4.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Rusling (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Van Daalen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Remi Grasset (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Kael Sabben (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Joon Chien Tan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Dev Gordon (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.13
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.73
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.43
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R12	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.39	1.43

Zachary Gardiner

24th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

5.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Dobler (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tom Bradford (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Royals (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Troy Wilson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs benji muehlebach (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jonathan Asquith (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

5.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.42
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.63	2.42
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.44
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.98

bill huynh

34th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.3

Surp

5.8

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Fahad Rahman (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lawrence Mason (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Freeman Monika (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Remi Grasset (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Murray Shaw (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Yifei Wang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

5.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.16
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.25
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.63	2.42
R11	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Win	✗	0.67	2.96
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

James MacDonald

67th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Anderson (Unknown)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Damian Moss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jarrod Bowler (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Brad Adam (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 62:38

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Taufik Indrakesuma (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Roy Lai (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R10	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.38	1.14
R11	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.98

John Farren

68th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

4.9

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Damian Moss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luke Lewis (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Rusling (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Nando Nando (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jonathan Luey (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Daimon Martin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R10	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	CC	Puffin, Hightail	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.58	2.50

Peter Katsakis

36th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daimon Martin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Owen Young (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dev Gordon (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jake mccormack (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Andrew Qi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Ryan Taylor (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.21
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.36
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.72

Tiger Mckenzie

30th • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs John Cavenett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs logan boyd (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Blake Godenzi (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Yifei Wang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Shaun Leow (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Liam Bennett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.14
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.82
R11	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Tom Debney

44th • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.6

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yifei Wang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Smith (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joel Gibbons (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Emma Hollingsworth (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Aidan Ward (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Spencer Horton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.08
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Sarah Nicholas

58th • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

3.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nathan Lucev (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Blake Godenzi (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Luey (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Philip Nagle (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jonas Ryen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Nick McGrath (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R10	CC	Puffin, Hightail	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.57

Jonas Ryen

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.1

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Roy Lai (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Watt (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Minh Tran (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Daimon Martin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Sarah Nicholas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.10
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Minh Tran

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jason Pickett (Unknown)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jake mccormack (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jonas Ryen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Tom Jenkins

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Toby Firth (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Samuel Marshall (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sable Wang-Wills (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.57
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.86

Benjamin Ryan

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs logan boyd (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matt Nguyen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Calvin Yu (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.33
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Joel Gibbons

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Taylor (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cody Gebert (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tom Debney (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.33
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Taine Markley

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Samuel Lennon (Unknown)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Beckett McNeil (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yousef Mnahy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Darren Taing

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Bell (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jemima Evans (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Vincent Lam (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.