National Championship 2025 - Australia - Vynnset, Iron Maiden (CC)

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Henry De Malmanche

16th • 4-2-0

17%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

3.9

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andy Pham (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Taufik Indrakesuma (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nathan Lucev (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Shaun Leow (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

80:20

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs German Glukhov (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19

25:75

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Emma Hollingsworth (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.20
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.39
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Win	✗	0.68	2.76
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.57
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Murray Shaw

49th • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matt Nguyen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Taylor (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Vincent Lim (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs bill huynh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

25:75

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Nathan Lucev (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.27
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.10
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R10	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.97
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Owen Young

46th • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Blake Godenzi (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Peter Katsakis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ethan Dominy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

25:75

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs benji muehlebach (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Tye Soens (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.20
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R12	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Abigail Evans

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tye Soens (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Louis Jia (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tom Bradford (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Anthony O’Hara

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

Deck

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nick McGrath (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Madeline Southwood (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Steven Liu (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.53

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.