Vynnset, Iron Maiden at National Championship 2025

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Henry De Malmanche

16th • 4-2-0

17%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

2.6

Surp

4.4

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andy Pham (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Taufik Indrakesuma (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nathan Lucev (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80

25:75

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Shaun Leow (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

80:20

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs German Glukhov (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20

20:80

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Emma Hollingsworth (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.28
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.39
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Win	✗	0.73	3.16
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.58
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-

Murray Shaw

49th • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matt Nguyen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Taylor (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Vincent Lim (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs bill huynh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

20:80

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Nathan Lucev (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.25
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.11
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R10	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.93
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-

Owen Young

46th • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Blake Godenzi (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Peter Katsakis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ethan Dominy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65

20:80

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs benji muehlebach (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

25:75

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Tye Soens (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.28
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R12	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Abigail Evans

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tye Soens (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 27:73

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Louis Jia (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 27:73

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tom Bradford (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Anthony O’Hara

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.5

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nick McGrath (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Madeline Southwood (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Steven Liu (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.54

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.