Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X at National Championship 2025

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

12 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Damian Moss

3rd • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs John Farren (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James MacDonald (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Vincent Lim (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Madeline Southwood (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Nick Butcher (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Matthew Angove (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Zachary Cauchi (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Nick Butcher (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.08
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.16
R3	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.22
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.45
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R13	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.42
R14	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Blake Godenzi

33rd • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.7

Surp

3.2

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Owen Young (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sarah Nicholas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tiger Mckenzie (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Alexander Van Daalen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Alessandro Pena (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.50
R11	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.36	1.20
R12	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Remi Grasset

54th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

3.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Cooper (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yousef Mnahy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Danial Affendy (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs bill huynh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Nathan Lucev (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Matthew O'Grady (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.13
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R12	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.65	3.02

Troy Wilson

55th • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Muhamad Fachrul (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ruairidh Wasson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Spencer (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Zachary Gardiner (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs James Lewis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Calvin Yu (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.80

Oliver Hill

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Euan Ansell (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kuan Li (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Johnson : ) (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Alexander Dobler (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Yifei Wang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.18
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.46
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.80
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Arthur Kindl

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Valentine Nguyen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Faron Swingler (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gary Manttan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.20
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.62
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

David Smith

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jemima Evans (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tom Debney (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Angove (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.19
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.44
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Ryan Royals

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Vincent Lam (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Bell (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zachary Gardiner (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.66

Andy Pham

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.9

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Henry De Malmanche (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Calvin Yu (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adam Gale (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.93

Stephen Thompson

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lachlan Buchan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Igor Brkic (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew O'Grady (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.31
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Vincent Lam

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Royals (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Darren Taing (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.66

Lachlan Saunders

dropped • 0-2-1

100%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Xavier Nelson (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 87:13

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Lenihan (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lachlan Buchan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	85%	Draw	✓	0.87	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.