Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X at National Championship 2025

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

12 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Damian Moss

3rd • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.5

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs John Farren (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James MacDonald (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Vincent Lim (Dash I/O) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Madeline Southwood (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Nick Butcher (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Matthew Angove (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Zachary Cauchi (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Nick Butcher (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.09
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.18
R3	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.25
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.51
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R13	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.45
R14	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Blake Godenzi

33rd • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.8

Surp

3.8

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Owen Young (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sarah Nicholas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tiger Mckenzie (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Alexander Van Daalen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Alessandro Pena (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.24
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.35
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.54
R12	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Remi Grasset

54th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

3.4

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Cooper (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yousef Mnahy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Danial Affendy (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs bill huynh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Nathan Lucev (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Matthew O'Grady (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.13
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R12	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.63	2.90

Troy Wilson

55th • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.3

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Muhamad Fachrul (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ruairidh Wasson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Spencer (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Zachary Gardiner (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs James Lewis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Calvin Yu (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00

Oliver Hill

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.7

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Euan Ansell (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kuan Li (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Johnson : ) (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Alexander Dobler (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Yifei Wang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.54
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Arthur Kindl

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Valentine Nguyen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Faron Swingler (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gary Manttan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.69
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

David Smith

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jemima Evans (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tom Debney (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Angove (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.47
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Ryan Royals

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Vincent Lam (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Bell (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zachary Gardiner (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.71

Andy Pham

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Henry De Malmanche (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Calvin Yu (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adam Gale (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.03

Stephen Thompson

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lachlan Buchan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Igor Brkic (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew O'Grady (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.34
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Vincent Lam

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Royals (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Darren Taing (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.71

Lachlan Saunders

dropped • 0-2-1

67%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Xavier Nelson (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 79:21

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Lenihan (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 27:73

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lachlan Buchan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	80%	Draw	✓	0.79	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.