National Championship 2025 - Australia - Arakni, Marionette (CC)

Arakni, Marionette

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Igor Brkic

50th • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

3.2

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Louis Shum (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Stephen Thompson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Bell (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Joon Chien Tan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Freeman Monika (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Cody Gebert (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.18
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.21
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.35
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.60	2.42
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Aidan Ward

22nd • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.7

Surp

3.4

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Freeman Monika (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Rusling (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Vinh Luong (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs logan boyd (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Tom Debney (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Beckett McNeil (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.30
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.66
R12	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.38	1.39

Tom Nguyen

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs James Lewis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tom Karunaratne (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Samuel Marshall (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Cody Gebert (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Evan Bicknell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.70
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

David Huang

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.8

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Samuel Coffey (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ian Chu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Justin Lenihan (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.09

Matthew Portelli

dropped • 2-1-0

Meta

+0.7

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.2

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lawrence Mason (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andreas Andronicou (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Liam Bennett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (1.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.44
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.78
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Toby Firth

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tom Jenkins (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nick McGrath (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Shaun Leow (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.30
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.75
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Ian Chu

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Huang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brad Adam (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.62

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.