Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2025

Arakni, Marionette

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Igor Brkic

50th • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.6

Surp

3.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Louis Shum (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Stephen Thompson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Bell (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 71:29

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Joon Chien Tan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Freeman Monika (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Cody Gebert (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.18
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.25
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.63	2.62
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Aidan Ward

22nd • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

3.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Freeman Monika (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Rusling (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Vinh Luong (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs logan boyd (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Tom Debney (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Beckett McNeil (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.27
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	2.14
R12	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.99

Tom Nguyen

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs James Lewis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tom Karunaratne (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Samuel Marshall (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Cody Gebert (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Evan Bicknell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.56
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.47	-

David Huang

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Samuel Coffey (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ian Chu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Justin Lenihan (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Matthew Portelli

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lawrence Mason (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andreas Andronicou (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Liam Bennett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.48
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.62
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Toby Firth

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tom Jenkins (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nick McGrath (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Shaun Leow (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.39
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.79
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Ian Chu

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Huang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brad Adam (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.