National Championship 2025 - Australia - Ira, Scarlet Revenger (CC)

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Beckett McNeil

27th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.4

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Adam Gale (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Taine Markley (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs German Glukhov (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Louis Shum (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jake mccormack (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 24:76

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Aidan Ward (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.11
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.38
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.30
R10	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.65
R11	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Patrick Watt

dropped • 3-0-0

33%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

2.0

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Spencer Horton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jonas Ryen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jordan Finch (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.41
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.75
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Ryan Bell

dropped • 2-1-0

Meta

+0.7

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Darren Taing (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Royals (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Igor Brkic (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (1.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.38
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.84
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.